Demographically adjusted demand for health care hospital treatment services for the years: 2027; 2033; 2039 and 2045 in Poland

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Details: Category: 2024, Volume 20; 22 February 2025; Hits: 138

Krzysztof Osmański¹, Andrzej Śliwczyński^2*, Maciej Jewczak^3*, Ewa Orlewska⁴, Patryk Wicher⁵, Sebastian Zduński⁶, Dominika Cichońska-Rzeźnicka⁷, Melania Brzozowska⁸, Jan Krakowiak⁹, Izabela Gołębiak¹⁰

¹ Department of Public Health, The National Institute of Medicine of the Ministry of the Interior and Administration, Warsaw, Poland,
² Department of Public Health, The National Institute of Medicine of the Ministry of the Interior and Administration, Warsaw, Poland,
³ Department of Spatial Econometrics; Centre of Labour Market Analysis, Faculty of Economics and Sociology University of Lodz, Poland,
⁴ Collegium Medicum, Jan Kochanowski University, Kielce, Poland,
⁵ National Medical Institute of the Ministry of the Interior and Administration, Warsaw, Poland,
⁶ Department of Public Health, The National Institute of Medicine of the Ministry of the Interior and Administration, Warsaw, Poland,
⁷ Department of Social Medicine, Health Science Department, Medical University of Lodz, Poland,
⁸ National Medical Institute of the Ministry of the Interior and Administration, Warsaw, Poland,
⁹ Department of Social Medicine, Health Science Department, Medical University of Lodz, Poland,
¹⁰ Faculty of Medicine, Lazarski University, Warsaw, Poland,

*Corresponding author’s: Andrzej Śliwczyński Department of Public Health, The National Institute of Medicine of the Ministry of the Interior and Administration, Warsaw, Poland, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.; Maciej Jewczak, Department of Spatial Econometrics; Centre of Labour Market Analysis, Faculty of Economics and Sociology University of Lodz, Poland, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Authors:

Abstract

Background and Study Aim: Changes taking place in health systems, including the increasing life expectancy of the population, have for many decades forced researchers and analysts to take into account many factors when planning the organization and financing of health care. The cognitive aim of this paper is demand knowledge for hospital health services in medical specialties up to 2045 in Poland. The application goal is recommendations based on a more complex approach to estimate future demand for health care services of a certain type that involves age-specific health cohorts and presumed macro demographic trends.

Material and Methods: According to the position of the Polish Bioethics Commissions, the retrospective analysis of depersonalized and aggregated data does not constitute a medical experiment under current regulations and does not require an opinion of the Bioethics Commission. We used a more complex approach – Shift-Share Analysis (SSA) method. An extrapolation analysis of the demand for health services within hospital care in individual medical specialties was performed, taking into account demographic forecasts in individual age groups and data on the provision of medical services in Poland in 2015-2021, divided into medical specialties. The construction of the forecast was based on the concept of weighing the expected number of patients with appropriate correction factors that resulted from global change, age structure of patients and characteristics of medical specialties.

Results: The health care system should expect the greatest decline in the number of patients in the specialties ‘neonatology’ and ‘infectious diseases’ (average annual rate −16.75% and −13.28%, respectively). An increase in the number of patients is forecast in the specialties ‘pediatric oncology and hematology’ and ‘audiology’ (average annual rate 5.39% and 5.13%, respectively).

Conclusions: The projections presented provide a set of visions for the future of population health needs. Despite the high level of uncertainty regarding future forecasts, they provide a better assessment of the consequences of currently observed trends for health and health policy, as well as the likely impact of future trends, such as the aging of the population or the continuation of epidemiological changes.

Keywords: age groups, COVID-19 pandemic, global burden of disease, health systems, SSA method

AMA:
Osmański K, Śliwczyński A, Jewczak M, Orlewska E, Wicher P, Zduński S, Cichońska-Rzeźnicka D, Brzozowska M, Krakowiak J, Gołębiak I. Demographically adjusted demand for health care hospital treatment services for the years: 2027; 2033; 2039 and 2045 in Poland. Arch Budo J Inn Agon. 2024;20.
APA:
Osmański, K., Śliwczyński, A., Jewczak, M., Orlewska, E., Wicher, P., Zduński, S., Cichońska-Rzeźnicka, D., Brzozowska, M., Krakowiak, J., & Gołębiak, I. (2024). Demographically adjusted demand for health care hospital treatment services for the years: 2027; 2033; 2039 and 2045 in Poland. Arch Budo J Inn Agon, 20.
Chicago:
Osmański, Krzysztof, Andrzej Śliwczyński, Maciej Jewczak, Ewa Orlewska, Patryk Wicher, Sebastian Zduński, Dominika Cichońska-Rzeźnicka, Melania Brzozowska, Jan Krakowiak, and Izabela Gołębiak. 2024. "Demographically Adjusted Demand for Health Care Hospital Treatment Services for the Years: 2027; 2033; 2039 and 2045 in Poland." Arch Budo J Inn Agon 20.
Harvard:
Osmański, K., Śliwczyński, A., Jewczak, M., Orlewska, E., Wicher, P., Zduński, S., Cichońska-Rzeźnicka, D., Brzozowska, M., Krakowiak, J., & Gołębiak, I. (2024). Demographically adjusted demand for health care hospital treatment services for the years: 2027; 2033; 2039 and 2045 in Poland. Arch Budo J Inn Agon, 20.
MLA:
Osmański, Krzysztof, et al. "Demographically Adjusted Demand for Health Care Hospital Treatment Services for the Years: 2027; 2033; 2039 and 2045 in Poland." Arch Budo J Inn Agon, vol. 20, 2024.
Vancouver:
Osmański K, Śliwczyński A, Jewczak M, Orlewska E, Wicher P, Zduński S, Cichońska-Rzeźnicka D, Brzozowska M, Krakowiak J, Gołębiak I. Demographically adjusted demand for health care hospital treatment services for the years: 2027; 2033; 2039 and 2045 in Poland. Arch Budo J Inn Agon. 2024;20.

OUR POLICY

Mission of ARCHBUDO

The specific mission of the Archives of Budo 2023 is to strive for a breakthrough in public perception of a broad class of combat sports and martial arts as specific means of innovative agonology.